Catching up

Friends, I've been a bad and neglectful blogger. Unlike the previous incarnation of this blog, your humble author now has all of those distractions of a real life that seem to get in the way of blogging. Not a good excuse, of course, but its mine and I'm sticking to it.

Nevertheless, I've got some catching up to do. I'm going to do a quick (or quick-ish) hit on a few items from the last few weeks and promise to flesh certain topics out over the coming days. Shouldn't be too hard considering what's coming down the pipe this week. Here goes...

THE BUDGET

Finance Minister/Treasury Board President Lloyd Snelgrove delivered Budget 2011. I'll admit that I'm not thrilled with another deficit. I certainly understand the rationale of building while costs are low and we have money in the bank, and particularly appreciate that the budget continues commitments to my hometown of Fort McMurray and the Oilsands (mentioned repeatedly in the Throne Speech, by the way).

But I worry that we're draining the savings in the Sustainability Fund a bit too fast. I do respect, though, that this is quite clearly Ed Stelmach's last Budget and one that he feels reflects the direction he has tried to offer this province. That said, one of the things I'm going to be looking for from whoever gets my support in the PC Leadership race is a more stringent set of fiscal plans that sets a clearer direction for the provincial treasury. One that allows for more flexibility than "no deficits, ever" but also doesn't consider something like raising royalties (we've seen that movie before).

DRILLING STIMULUS

Speaking of royalties, oil and gas, and the like, the Edmonton Journal recently posted an editorial criticizing the Government of Alberta's new well drilling incentive. The folks over at Alberta Venture (who, incidentally, seem more and more like a magazine catering less to business and more to centrist and left-leaning points of view) chimed in in agreement.

Their beef is essentially that the Government is spending $1.6 billion on a drilling stimulus program for what some are calling a "sunset industry" while we're running a multi-billion dollar deficit. If you look only at those two sets of numbers and, if like most who are crying fowl, you are not a fan of the oil and gas sector to begin with, you may think you've got a great argument on your hands.

Unsurprisingly, the Journal got some blow back to their editorial. Letters from Gary Leach, Executive Director of the Small Explorers and Producers Association of Canada, and Don Herring, President of the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors are pretty indicative of the feelings within the industry.

While there are those who would love to see Alberta shun oil in favour of alternate forms of energy and economic activity (pixie dust, perhaps?), I think most Albertans - especially those in the oil and gas industry - appreciate and understand what this stimulus program does for the province.

Let's look at some of the results that can be attributed to the stimulus program. In 2010, the number of people employed by Alberta's energy sector increased by 17,000. Between March and December of 2010, there were almost double the number of active rigs in Alberta compared to the same time in 2009. Land sales in 2010 jumped to $2.4 BILLION, compared to $732 million in 2009.

The simple fact is that the drilling stimulus program makes Alberta an attractive place to do business. That's especially important since our neighbours to the west and east are no longer run by NDP governments and are actively drumming up business for their respective energy sectors. We need to keep pace - the drilling stimulus program keeps Alberta competitive and, more importantly, provides good, stable jobs for Albertans.

POLITICAL POSITIONING IN FORT MCMURRAY

In an earlier post, I spoke at length about a certain character whose words were pointing towards him seeking a Wildrose nomination in my hometown. More signs of that nomination campaign notwithstanding, I'm told by a Wildrose friend in Fort McMurray to expect the possibility of a Boutilier-Boutilier ticket running for the WAP in the two Fort McMurray seats. One Boutilier will obviously be current MLA Guy Boutilier, but the remains a mystery (at least they wouldn't tell me, anyway). A possibility who I'm told WON'T be the other Boutilier on the ticket is Fort McMurray Oil Barons President Andrew Boutilier, who is preoccupied with a young family.

While a same-name ticket is clever in a basic and juvenile way, I don't think that campaigning on name recognition alone will be sufficient in Fort McMurray this time around. Many voters in the community haven't been in town long and will likely be more concerned with a candidate's platform, community involvement, and ability to be an effective voice for the region in Edmonton rather than what a candidate may have done in a position 20 years ago. Regardless, it will be an interesting pair of races to watch.

RAJ

If you follow me on twitter, you'll know that I've started to lose patience with the shenanigans of Dr. Raj Sherman. While I certainly felt for the good doctor when he was expelled from the PC caucus, I also know that there is always more than one side to the story (namely, the juicy "woe is me" version that sells newspapers).

I've watched with increasing confusion as Dr. Sherman as paraded around with any and all comers ranging from the Friends of Medicare to a handful of Wildrose MLAs/candidates selling his story. I thought the bizarre goings on had reached a climax when he announced to a crowd in Southern Alberta that he was going to seek the Leadership of a provincial political party, but hadn't decided which party - and hadn't yet told his family. But the real facepalm to the forehead came when he declared, in the House, that 250 people had died on a waiting list in the mid-2000s because of a shortage of operating spots... and that Capital Health had paid Doctors millions of dollars to keep it quiet... and that Capital Health went so far as to run a second of books to keep the payouts hidden.

Now Dr. Sherman was happy to make these allegations within the protection of the floor of the Legislative Assembly, but was pretty tight-lipped as soon as he stepped outside of the Chamber. This hesitation, combined with the fact that one of the implicated persons, Dr. Trevor Theman of the College of Physicians and Surgeons, has stated that he had NEVER heard of what Dr. Sherman was alleging - not even as a rumour - has me thinking that Dr. Sherman has either been perilously misinformed or that the whole thing is something cooked up to try and make the Goverment look bad.

He promises to table his "evidence" this week, so we'll see if he's got a leg to stand on. But my money is on this whole episode proving to be the turning point in the demise of Dr. Sherman's career in the Alberta Legislature.

PC LEADERSHIP

I've been involved in provincial politics in this province since I bought my first PC membership at the age of 15. For the first time since then, I am facing an election where I don't know who I'm supporting at the start of the race. The onset of the PC Leadership race came as a bit of a surprise to most of us, of course, so its a little more understandable that we all weren't quite as invested as we have been in other races (and certainly compared to general elections).

So here I am, for the first time in nearly 15 years, a free agent. While a number of friends in various camps have been doing their best to sway me towards their candidate, and others are assuming that I'm already with one camp or another, I remain as close to the average undecided voter as I've ever been.

I plan to take advantage of this free agency to weigh some of the issues I consider important against the platforms of the various candidates as they roll out. As an aside, I don't expect full platforms at this stage of the game - especially not while the Leg is still in session. Besides, anyone who thinks a campaign should release its whole platform on day one probably doesn't have a good idea on how to run an election anyway.

Some of the things I want to hear about from the PC Leadership candidates over the next little while will be their commitment to the Fort McMurray region, their ideas on the Highway 2 corridor from both an infrastructure perspective (including High Speed Rail) and as an economic generator, thoughts on creating a better working relationship on the macro level with our counterparts in Ottawa, and renewing the PC Party machinery into a more effective and efficient (and aggressive) political operation.

I'll be sure to touch on these and other points as the race unfolds. And don't worry, you'll know when I've made my decision ;-)

In the meantime, thanks for reading if you've made through all of this! I'll try to be a little more frequent with the blogging in the weeks ahead.

Building Fort McMurray: Divisive politics don't add up

Those of you who know me know that I wear my hometown of Fort McMurray on my sleeve. Although I now live in Edmonton, I maintain a keen interest in the affairs of Fort McMurray. The success of Fort McMurray and the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo is, I firmly believe, vital to our continued prosperity as a province.

If you follow my non-Albertatory account on Twitter, you'll know that I tweet regularly on McMurray and oilsands issues. And you'll also know that I often find myself getting into lengthy exchanges with now-former Wood Buffalo Regional Councillor John Vyboh.

With the exception of the Montreal Canadiens, John and I don't see eye-to-eye on much of anything. I campaigned for/supported candidates he was running against in the provincial elections of 1997 and 2001 (when he ran for MLA as a Liberal, and lost both times), and the municipal elections of 1998 and 2010 (when he ran for Mayor, and lost both times). Needless to say, we're usually on opposite sides of any debate.

Yesterday, Premier Ed Stelmach and half of the Alberta cabinet were in Fort McMurray to talk to a variety of local stakeholders and the public as part of the ongoing cabinet tour. I firmly believe that Premier Stelmach has, in terms of support for Fort McMurray and the Wood Buffalo region, been the best Premier since Peter Lougheed.

Vyboh was tweeting throughout the day about how he was disappointed and wanted to see more action from the provincial government. This pattern of criticism towards the provincial and municipal governments, incidentally, has become fairly regular since his most recent election defeat.

I challenged his assertion that Fort McMurray and the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (RMWB) have been constantly short-changed by the provincial government when compared with the amount of economic output in the region. During my time working in the Alberta Legislature, I was always impressed at the level of interest in Fort McMurray expressed by PC MLAs from across the province. Even though I was but a lowly communications staffer, I was always ready to entertain discussions on McMurray issues with my colleagues and did so regularly. Based on these experiences I absolutely believe that, contrary to spin from some disgruntled individuals, this Premier and his caucus are more committed to Fort McMurray and the region than any government in a generation.

That said, an opinion alone does not a compelling case make. I promised to dig up some numbers to back up my opinion, and was quite interested by what I found.

I should note that there are some difficulties in identifying with pinpoint accuracy the total amount of revenue that a particular region generates. I'm not an accountant, nor do I have gobs of time to unearth every piece of relevant data. So I build my case with the biggest ticket items when it comes to revenues and spending to get a general idea what's really going on with respect to provincial investment in Northeastern Alberta.

Revenues are represented by the amount the Government of Alberta collects in oilsands royalties (not region-specific, but the bulk of oilsands production occurs in the RMWB). Since 2006, provincial coffers have been boosted by oilsands royalties to the tune of $11.462 billion.

Spending includes operating grants to the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, the two local school boards, Keyano College, and the Northern Lights Regional Health Authority (now part of AHS). I should note that I don't have specific health grants to the Wood Buffalo region for 2009-10 since I couldn't find it on AHS' website, so I've allocated the same amount of funding from the previous year to make a rough calculation. Since 2006-07, operating grants to the 5 largest entities in Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo total close to $1.698 billion.

Spending also includes major capital projects like new schools, health facility upgrades, new bridges, affordable housing units, sewer upgrades, and the ongoing twinning of Highway 63. Those projects total almost $2.422 billion.

Finally, spending includes grants from programs like Community Spirit, MCFP, CFEP, and CIP. That comes to roughly $7.4 million.

All these spending numbers total $4,126,915,000, while the oilsands royalties collected by the province total $11,462,000,000. So roughly 36% of what the province collects in oilsands royalties are returned to the Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo region.

Now some would consider that a short-changing, but I disagree. The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, at an estimated 103,000 residents, represents 2.76% of Alberta's population. And yet it receives about 36% of the value of oilsands royalties back from the province.

I know that oilsands royalties aren't the only source of revenue for the Alberta Government, but royalties from all energy sectors together do provide a sizeable chunk of the government dime. The royalties collected from all sectors from 2006-07 to 2009-10 total $41,896,100,000. Divide that by the $4,126,915,000 in previously mentioned spending and you're look at just under 10% of royalty dollars collected across Alberta being directed to a region with less than 3% of the population. I'd say that's a ratio that shows this government has a solid commitment to investing in the Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo region.

There was another set of numbers I stumbled upon that I also thought painted a more accurate picture than Vyboh and other boo-birds are trying to paint. Alberta Finance and Enterprise produces something called the Blue Book. Within it, I was able to find how much the Government of Alberta transferred in grants and operating funds to the major entities I listed above. I searched within this data for the fiscal year 2009-10 to see how much the government transferred in grants and operating funds (not capital projects) to the largest municipalities in the province. I thought this would be useful because it would likely help prove my point that the provincial government is indeed paying special attention to the needs of Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo and funding accordingly.

Here's what the province transferred to the following municipalities in 2009-10:

City of Calgary: $483,301,069

City of Edmonton: $513,718,734

City of Grande Prairie: $30,993,482

City of Lethbridge: $50,533,354

City of Medicine Hat: $38,801,180

City of Red Deer: $51,955,422

Strathcona County: $37,450,977

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo: $178,993,103

And here's what that works out to on a per capita basis:

City of Calgary: $451.04

City of Edmonton: $656.56

City of Grande Prairie: $617.07

City of Lethbridge: $583.13

City of Medicine Hat: $635.08

City of Red Deer: $576.74

Strathcona County: $453.89

Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo: $1,732.18

I don't mean to start a war between municipalities on how much they're getting from the province here - I think we all understand the economic benefit for the entire province that is generated by the Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo region and, I hope, appreciate why the province has been giving it extra financial attention.

Part of the reason behind wanting to dispel the spin that Vyboh and others of his mindset have been presenting is because of what is expected to be his next political move. As I mentioned above, Vyboh has twice been an Alberta Liberal candidate in Fort McMurray and has long been identified as a federal Liberal supporter. During the last municipal election in the RMWB, though, a number of supporters of the local MLA threw their support behind Vyboh's bid for Mayor. Although they were political foes in two elections (three if you count the 1998 municipal race), they came together against a common enemy: RMWB Mayor Melissa Blake.

Mayor Blake, to her credit, doesn't play the politics of division. I have always found her to be proactive and well-respected leader who is able to build positive relationships with stakeholders and other levels of government to deliver results for her region. Voters in RMWB clearly agree, returning her to the Mayor's chair with over 73% of the vote. Vyboh's politics of division were soundly rejected with only 22% support and the concurrent defeat of his ally from the previous Council, Mila Byron.

Vyboh is now turning his attention to provincial politics and is expected to seek the Wildrose Alliance nomination to serve as running mate to local MLA Guy Boutilier in the new Fort McMurray-area constituency. This convenient ideological shift is opportunistic, if not laughable. But I also think it is doomed to fail. RMWB voters have shown that they are more interested in the new generation of leadership growing in their community. One that builds relationships and works collaboratively to further the community's interests rather than personal agendas. And, as illustrated above, those kinds of positive relationships are greatly benefiting the citizens of the RMWB.

I've asserted that, contrary to what Vyboh and his boosters are spinning, that the provincial government CLEARLY sees the need for increased investment in the Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo region. Although no amount of provincial investment and attention will be enough for some who are either trying to win a seat in the Alberta Legislature or hang on to the one they already hold, I think the numbers speak for themselves.

Fort McMurray and the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo have done very well by Premier Ed Stelmach and his government. I hope the next Premier will continue to show the same leadership for my beloved hometown.

Is the Alberta Liberal Party worth saving?

With the resignation of Alberta Liberal Leader Dr. David Swann today, some tough questions are being raised about the viability and the very future of the Official Opposition.

While some in the media (and many in parties who would love to cash in on the demise of the ALP) are preparing the funeral rites for the longest standing party in Alberta politics, I wouldn't be jumping on that bandwagon just yet.

The title of this blog asks the basic question: Is the Alberta Liberal Party worth saving? My answer, which may surprise some, is yes. But hear me out...

There's no question that the last few years haven't been the greatest for Alberta Liberals, but its a far cry from the darkest times the party saw when they were completely shut out of the Legislature. And they do have some things to be happy about, namely the fact that they've finally recovered financially from the Cadillac campaign that Nancy Macbeth ran in 2001.

Naysayers would have you believe that the Liberal brand is pure poison in Alberta and would be a waste to try and revive. But an objective look at some numbers should tell you otherwise.

In order to be successful, political parties need an identifiable voter base, brand recognition/definition, and money. Simple as that.

Liberals in Alberta can consistently count on the support of at least 25% of Alberta voters these days. In the 2008 election they scored 26.37%, 29.4% in 2004, 27.33% in 2001, 32.75% in 1997, and 39.73% in 1993. You have to go back to 1986 to find a time when Liberal support was below that 1/4 mark (just over 12%). Federally, Liberals have done poorly in the last two elections in Alberta (11% in 2008 and 15% in 2006), but before that enjoyed a decent level of support with 22% in 2004, 21% in 2000, 24% in 1997, and 25% in 1993.

My point is that, generally speaking, at least one in every four Albertans is willing to mark their ballot for a Liberal candidate. That's not enough to win an election (unless you're in some kind of Euro pizza parliament), but it is something that an organized party with a good leader can build on.

That ability to build leads into that next requirement from above: brand recognition/definition. This is Canada and, in Canada, the Liberal brand is everywhere. Although they haven't been formally affiliated with Alberta Liberals for some time now, the Liberal Party of Canada has dedicated provincial wings in every province and territory of this country. And Liberals exist as a provincial party in every province and the one territory that doesn't run on consensus government. They are the ONLY brand that is that widespread provincially. Voters know that the Liberal Party is out there and they know, generally speaking, where they sit on the political spectrum (this hovers around the centre depending on province and leader). In a province that has tens of thousands of people arriving from other parts of Canada every year, being a political brand that they knew "back home" can be a very powerful asset.

The third requirement, money, is directly related to the first two items I talked about. If your supporters know who you are and, more importantly, if you know who your supporters are, you can raise money. Raising money is made easier, of course, if you have a strong leader and good team of organizers. And contrary to popular belief, there are some VERY smart organizers in federal Liberal circles in Alberta. They haven't been very active with the provincial party over the last two elections, but that doesn't mean they're lost to the cause. With the right leader and a mandate to thoroughly harvest and develop Liberal supporter lists, they could build viable constituency associations through most of the province and raise a respectable amount of money in the process.

And, with these three things in place, the Alberta Liberals can again become a force in provincial politics. The task is undoubtedly daunting, but not impossible. And considering much of the required party infrastructure (albeit skeletal in nature) exists, it may be an easier task than trying to build an un-established and yet un-defined party to occupy the same place on the political spectrum.

So if I'm a prominent progressive Albertan thinking of running to lead a political party, I have to ask myself where I focus my efforts. I can try to my stamp on something that is still in its infancy and trying to be all things to all people. Or I can bring my vision to an established brand that is well-known with a measurable and dependable level of support, and that has the infrastructure and skilled operatives who can work to broaden that support and raise money from said supporters if I'm the right leader.

Not that I ever expect myself to be in that hypothetical position, but I know where I'd be directing my efforts if I were.

Questions before Answers

This post isn't going to be a terribly long one... mainly because I still have less to say than I have to think about.

We're 4 days into the unofficial PC leadership race and people seem to be tripping over themselves try to find the "answer" for the PC party. Depending on who you ask, that answer could be Ted Morton, Doug Horner, Alison Redford, Jim Prentice, Jim Dinning, Dave Hancock, and the list goes on.

The answers that folks will come up with over the course of this race will depend a lot on the question they're asking. Who can bring Wildrose Alliance supporters back into the PC fold? Who will appeal to moderate Albertans? Who will best continue the work started by Premier Stelmach? Who will be our best voice on the national and international stage? And the answers to these questions will probably be different depending on who you ask.

Lots of folks have asked me who my "answer" is - but I'm not there yet.

I think Albertans of all stripes understand that we're in a different political climate these days. There are more and more of us talking about the direction our province needs to go and how we should set out to make it happen. Even though a lot of people think that PCs are afraid of these kinds of discussions, I personally find it exciting. Its said that a strong opposition makes for a strong government and, although the opposition is fractured right now, it is definitely more of a force in Alberta politics than we've seen in a long time.

Because of all this, I think PC members (and any Albertan who chooses to join the party to help select the next Premier) shouldn't jump too quickly towards a candidate that they think is the "answer". The next Premier of Alberta shouldn't be chosen as a quick fix to whatever we think the most pressing problem in the party might be. In other words, we shouldn't be rushing to find an answer without first determining the right question. And, at least in my mind, the right question is going to be far more complex than the simple ones I listed above.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a partisan and I want the PC party to pick someone who will have a broad electoral appeal and attract good candidates to match. But we owe it to ourselves and to Albertans to take a long, hard look at where we want this province to be in 5, 20, 100 years and beyond - not just the next election cycle. That kind of in-depth reflection is going to give us the right question to ask when we go to mark our leadership ballot. At this stage of the game, our party still has the best chance of implementing the kinds of policies that will make those dreams a reality. But we need to show Albertans that we've done our homework, chosen an intelligent and charismatic Leader to outline our plan, and offered up a slate of top-notch citizens to be part of the team that makes it happen.

For now, I'm going to take my time to determine what my ballot question is. Until I'm confident in what that question is for me, I won't set out to answer it prematurely. I hope my fellow Tories do the same.

Retirements, Redundancies, and Relocations

Rumours are starting to swirl about a possible announcement by Finance Minister Lyle Oberg that he has decided not to seek re-election in the upcoming election.

Rick Bell's column (linked above) suggests that this may be the result of the good Doctor being taken to the proverbial woodshed one too many times. Ken Chapman also takes a critical look at the member for Strathmore-Brooks in his latest post. I suspect we'll be reading more about this in the days ahead.

If it IS true that he's leaving, there could be any number of reasons. Lyle has been splitting his time between family in Brooks, family in Sherwood Park, and his duties as a Minister. That takes a toll on anyone and it could well be that he's simply choosing to get out to cut down on that strain. Of course, the woodshed argument is entirely possible, too.

One thing is for sure, Lyle doesn't have much of a poker face.

Whatever the reason for a departure may be, it'll be pretty obvious from his demeanour at this anticipated announcement.

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Of all the areas of public policy that I find myself caring about, the most boring is probably issues surrounding license plates.

Ever since I was a child, i've had some bizarre interest in plates (as well as an uncanny knack for remembering people's plate numbers). I started thinking a few years ago that I can't ever remember the Alberta plate looking any different than it does now and that perhaps it was time for a change.

Imagine my joy, then, when Service Alberta Minister Lloyd Snelgrove announced that his department was going to begin a consultation on the future of the Alberta license plate.

(Hard to believe I can't get a date, I know...)

One item in the consultation, which you should all take a few minutes to do, ponders a return of the front license plate.

I think this is a colossal waste of money.

Prudish defenders of bureaucracy, though, are lining up in favour.

In a recent blog post, Graham Thomson details a speech given by Liberal MLA Mo Elsalhy during the marathon sitting of the Legislature. The post is a good reminder that Graham Thomson is the best unpaid spin machine the Liberals have, but that's another matter.

In his speech, Mr. Elsalhy justifies the need for a return to a two-plate system by explaining that places like BC have cameras that can identify a vehicle and determine if the owner is wanted for any number of things from a crime to child support arrears. This kind of a system alerts the police and allows them to stop the vehicle a little further down the road.

I actually don't think this is a particularily bad idea. And the cost of $100,000 as quoted by the Liberal member isn't at all unreasonable.

Here's the thing, though:

The camera is pointed at oncoming traffic to capture front plates in BC, right?

If we implement a similar system, couldn't we just turn the cameras the other way to capture the rear plates that we already have?

More brilliance from your Liberal "Shadow Ministers", folks.

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Finally, a note about the labour shortage in Alberta.

Federal Human Resources Minister Monte Solberg, himself a top-notch Albertan, was in Calgary to speak to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and addressed the shortage and the actions that the feds are taking to address it. His comments were obviously important and well-received, given that they got coverage in two separate stories in today's Calgary Herald here and here.

The labour shortage is something that has gone past being an issue of exceptional job security and more into a crippling burden on employers.

Alberta remains the place where the maverick, can-do, get-er-done spirit goes a long way to building a promising future. Its something I have always believed and that grows ever stronger as those who promote that kind of thinking continue to find great success in Alberta.

And so, friends, I have decided that my BC experiment will soon be drawing to a close.

By the end of January I will once again be a proud resident of the Land of the Free and the Home of the Flames: Calgary, Alberta.

Living on Vancouver Island has certainly opened my eyes to a different way of thinking and a different way of life. While I can certainly appreciate where the residents here are coming from, it just isn't for me.

I will look forward to visiting the many friends I have made here on a regular basis, and in turn look forward to hosting them in what I believe is the greatest city in Canada.

I'll admit that, over the last few years, i've been somewhat of a modern-day gypsy. There are few who know me who wouldn't say i'm a traveller at heart. I love being on the road or in the air, heading to destinations old and new to see their sights and meet their people first hand. I don't expect that spirit to change in me anytime soon.

But even the most frequent travellers always know, in their heart, where home is.