Sunday, March 2, 2008

The Final Countdown

I'm home.

After a great drive across the rockies on Friday, I find myself back in this great, wonderful place.

As you can imagine, it didn't take me long to get thrown into the final push for votes in this campaign.

I find myself exceedingly busy heading into the home stretch, so this will be the last blog post until after the election results are in (at which point i'm sure i'll have a lot to say).

Here, then, is a bit of rapid fire for you:

- I had promised to do a full profile on my home riding of Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. That won't happen now, mea culpa. Here's the Cole's Notes version: I'm happy to call both the PC and Liberal candidates friends. There's certainly some volatility in the air up north, but the prospect of habitually low voter turnout may suppress that. For a last minute addition to the Liberal ticket, Ross Jacobs is to be credited for running a good campaign on a shoestring budget. He's sought out disenchanted groups and tried to bring them onside. Ross' biggest challenge will be the manpower required to do a proper get out the vote effort. Manpower is not a problem for Guy Boutilier, who seems to have an even bigger force on the hustings for him this time around. In talking to some of the PC braintrust back home, it sounds as though nothing is being taken for granted this time and a broad swath of new supporters have been identified. All things being equal from here on in, my money is still on a Boutilier victory. It may be a lot closer than in the past, but Guy's team has the necessary resources (if deployed properly) to keep the Oilsands City in Tory Blue.

-Colby Cosh has a great item in the National Post (a paper I don't read that often anymore) that sums up what is wrong with Kevin Taft and the Alberta Liberal Party. I obviously don't share his reluctance in voting for Ed Stelmach, but he's absolutely correct about the attitude that Liberals seem to have towards Alberta.

-On the flip side of the coin, Kim Trynacity does a pretty good job of showing just how out of touch the CBC is with average Albertans.

-Whoever thought that this rally was a good idea needs to have their head examined. Traffic on Whyte Avenue on a sunny Saturday afternoon was seriously backed up. Whether the rally had anything to do with causing the backup or not, frustrated motorists looking for someone to blame for their traffic woes would pass this rally and see a wall full of Liberal signs. Who do you think they're going to blame?

-I'm not going to do a seat-by-seat projection for you, but I will offer a few snippets of what I think we'll see tomorrow night:
  • The Liberals will win at least one seat that they don't currently hold in Calgary, but they will lose at least one of the four they currently do hold.
  • Craig Chandler will go down in a magnificent blaze in Calgary Egmont at the hands of my buddy Jonathan Denis.
  • There will be a grand total of ZERO Wildrose Alliance MLAs in the next Alberta Legislature.
  • The Greens will have their best showing ever in the history of the province, courtesy of the voters of Lacombe-Ponoka.
  • The Liberals and the NDP will both lose seats in Edmonton as the PCs win more than double the number of seats we currently hold in the Capital.
  • Ed Stelmach will win upwards of 80% of the popular vote in Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville.
  • Kevin Taft will win considerably less than the 60%+ of the popular vote he enjoyed last time in Edmonton-Riverview.
  • Brian Mason's situation in Edmonton Highlands-Norwood will remain pretty much the same.
  • George Read will come in 2nd in Calgary North West
  • Paul Hinman will be out of a job.
The most important thing for everyone out there is to vote. If your ballot isn't already in the box, make sure you get it done tomorrow. Call friends and family and remind them to do the same. Our democracy ISN'T broken as some parties would have you believe, but it is best-served when everybody participates.

See you all after E-Day!


  1. Paul Newman's salad dressingMarch 02, 2008

    "Our democracy ISN'T broken as some parties would have you believe, but it is best-served when everybody participates."

    “After the election is over we want to make sure that every area has an equal opportunity to cast their ballots."
    – Ed Stelmach, Feb. 29, 2008

    Congratulations. You are the biggest idiot in Tory blog land. Good night, Irene.

  2. When the PCs star acting conservative maybe I'll vote for them. I actually LIKE Stelmach but not the rest of his crowd of useless Liberals in blue suits.

  3. You'd have to be more than a little partisan to think zero Wildrose Alliance MLAs is a good outcome. Even I think it would be positive if at least one Green and NDP MLA was in the next legislature.

  4. Blakes not a "Cherniak," thats just your way of trying to discredit his thoughts and ideas.

    I too was caught up in traffic because of the stupid rally. Get a hall or something next time. It wasn't just backed up, it was downright annoying.

  5. Jason HickmanMarch 03, 2008

    Blake, I'm not going to quibble too much - especially since I'm here in T.O. - but based on media reports (which is really all I can rely on...), it seems that Hinman may very well hold onto his seat - though I don't know if he'll have much company.

    We'll see if I have to eat these words tomorrow!

  6. I fully agree with the prediction that Chandler goes down.

    The Liberal seat you predict as being gained in Calgary will be Calgary Buffalo.

    The Liberal seat lost in Calgary will be NONE.

    And if you haven't made up your mind, people, vote anybody but Tory! And if you still don't know who to vote for, may I suggest the NDP ;)

  7. Jason HickmanMarch 04, 2008

    Well, looks like I've got me some words to eat (subject to the recount, if Hinman wants one, though a 39 vote margin *should* stand up).

    I thought Hinman was going to pull it out of the fire there at the end. While I was pulling for the Tories, I wouldn't have minded 1 or 2 WAP seats to keep 'em honest. Ah, well.

  8. Wasn't that hilarious when Chandler was actually ahead of Denis for a short while there as the polls were reporting?