Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Boo!

First let me start with a notice to all you faithful readers out there:

I'm heading off to New York City this evening for an extended long weekend holiday. I'll be posting comments on Alberta news items of the day if I find them very important. What you're more likely to see here, however, is another of my travel photo-blogs. Newsworthy stuff? Not really... but its my blog ;)

The CanWest papers in Alberta (Edmonton Journal/Calgary Herald) comissioned a poll to find out what Albertans think about the new royalty regime. Not surprisingly, the headlines reporting the results were torqued.

The story suggests that the Premier may be facing a "lose-lose" situation with respect to the reaction to the new royalties. To demostrate this, they trot out the fact that 61% of poll respondents believe that "oil companies overinflated the negative consequences that higher royalties would have on the sector."

Yeah. I do too. That doesn't suggest that people are mad at the government over the actions they've taken. Dig further and you'll find that the poll indicates that 47% of respondents support the government's new royalty regime, while 33% oppose it and 20% either don't know or didn't answer the question.

Decisions are made by people who show up... especially at the ballot box. I see these numbers and I don't worry one bit. 47% believe that the Premier did the right thing, while another 20% are still making up their mind or just plain don't care (and, in which case, likely don't bother to vote).

I think these numbers are a good start and, as more and more Albertans come to understand the report (along with some of the other good things the Stelmach government is doing), they'll be moving firmly into our camp.

Back over in "fairytale land", certain Alberta Liberals (who also happen to be Federal Liberals... coincidence i'm sure) continue to farcically call for the resignation of Energy Minister Mel Knight. This is quite laughable for two reasons.

One, everything that they are trying to pin on Knight happened almost exclusively prior to his arrival as Minister. Since he has taken over we have seen great progress on the energy file, no doubt due to his exceptional competence and energy sector experience unmatched by anyone in the Legislature.

Second, take a look at who a Liberal government would have as Minister of Energy. Aside from the fact that putting Beaker here in charge would send shivers down the spine of any sane Albertan, this guy isn't fit for public office. Its a shame I can't link directly to it, but you can take a gander through the afternoon hansards of April 28th-30th, 2003 and read the debate on a question of priviledge that the supposedly honourable Member for Edmonton-Gold Bar raised. The whole episode was shameful and shows that little (if any) trust should be placed in this man.

Finally, another gift from the guy that those Alberta Liberals just can't seem to shake. Stephane Dion shows a Taft-esque streak of missing the boat completely with THIS.

Happy Hallowe'en everybody!

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

On a roll

Its nice when a plan comes together, isn't it?

After a bit of a rough start, it appears as though Premier Ed Stelmach and his government are really on a roll.

Former Premier Peter Lougheed has come out with a ringing endorsement of the new royalty regime. If there is anyone who understands the difficulties of crafting a plan that takes into account the public good, the importance of a healthy economy, and the fluctuations of political instability, its Lougheed. A feather in the Premier's cap if ever there was one.

Speculation is running rampant that the Premier is going to call a snap election. I don't buy it for two reasons:

First, the party (although in a far better position than any of the others in Alberta) is still not yet in position for an election. There are still a number of ridings who have yet to nominate their top-notch candidates (more on that in a minute). Plus, the government is ready to go for the fall sitting of the Legislature which starts next week.

Second, even though Ed Stelmach has been Premier for less than a year, has he given anyone the impression that he's the kind of guy who makes decisions like this on the fly? I thought not.

Speaking of excellent candidates, internationally-renowed journalist Arthur Kent has announced that he will be seeking the PC nomination in Calgary-Currie. Should he win, he will be taking on a considerably less accomplished journalist in the form of one-term Liberal MLA Dave Taylor. The process of how Kent's candidacy came to be, along with some other interesting snippets, can be found in Don Braid's column. If I were Taylor, i'd have the QR77 HR department ready on speed dial.

Changing track for a moment, I spoke in a previous post of what seemed to be a deliberate effort to discredit the Federal Liberals on the part of the Alberta Liberals. We over on "team blue" aren't embarassed by our federal cousins. We, in fact, embrace them and are proud to share a great many volunteers and supporters. That's why it always nice to see our friends in Ottawa backing us up. I don't hear any Liberal MPs or "Shadow Ministers" coming to back up ole Tafty... maybe they should give this guy a call for support, sounds like he's got some time on his hands.

The Alberta-liberals?-no-liberals-here-Liberal presence in the blogosphere has become decidedly bitter over the last few days. Not surprisingly, since their policy and communications somehow managed to get outsmarted by the likes of Brian Mason. I wonder if we'll start to see them sink into their tired old lines about Albertans being just plain stupid if they vote for (insert PC Leader here)? The way things are going, i'd bank on it.

Speaking of bitter, how can we forget Graham Thomson? In his latest column, he takes his usual swipes at big oil (which, admittedly, they had coming this week). He then pieces together what he's pretty sure is a PC strategy to paint the Premier as dull-but-trustworthy. He paints a back-and-forth account of how Albertans might be reacting to the royalty report, but you can tell which side he's on...remember, this is the guy who once suggested that Kevin Taft was an excellent public speaker.

Graham closes by doing his buddy Taft's job for him, yakking on an on about the Premier's ad campaign in Alberta newspapers. A campaign which tells Albertans that he delivered on a promise he made and informs them of where to go for more information or to provide their feedback on the royalty decision. The thing that really gets me is that he suggests that its something that PC Alberta would have produced, "right down to the blue and yellow colour scheme". I realize that Thomson prefers red, but where has been been since he got off the bus from Ontario 20 years ago? The PC party colours are blue and bright orange, have been since 1971. The official colours of Alberta are blue and yellow, the ones in the aforementioned ad. Get with the program, buddy.

To close on a good note, three cheers to our cousins in Ottawa for another round of tax relief! Its nice to have people getting things done in Ottawa so we can focus on doing the same at home.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Renewal

For the record, i'm having a LOT of fun being back in the blogosphere.

Kudos for my return can go to a couple of unnamed regular readers (you know who you are) and, in a way, to the Premier himself for opening up this great big policy discussion on royalties.

One of the aforementioned regular readers shared a surprisingly accurate column from Paula Simons this morning, available online HERE.

I'm not sure what Paula put in her coffee this morning, but it sure has cleared up her thinking. She talks about a sea-change in Alberta's political thinking, made evident by the refreshingly open and frank discussion that Albertans have been having with their government and amongst themselves for the past five weeks. I couldn't agree more.

On the subject of change (or lack thereof), my Alberta-we're-not-Liberals-Liberal counterpart Dave has a post this morning suggesting that its the same old crowd running the government.

Not surprising, of course, but not terribly accurate either.

Dave points out that, of 61 PC MLAs, 42 have been re-nominated and that 19 of those have been in the Legislature since 1997 or earlier. Accurate.

What that means, though, is that over half of the incumbent PC MLAs have only been in the Legislature since 2001 or later.

Looking more closely at the representation around that cabinet table, and you can hardly claim a plethora of "stodgy" old tories. (Sidebar: I think Dave is way too cool to be using words like "stodgy")

Of the 22 Cabinet members (including Stelmach), only 5 were elected in 1993 during the "Miracle on the Prairies"... and one of them was elected as *gasp* an Alberta Liberal.

Fully half of the current Cabinet were elected in 2001 or 2004 and all but two of those 11 are first-time Cabinet Ministers.

I suspect the Liberals will counter with the fact that they've got a caucus/rump with plenty of people elected for the first time in 2004. Fair enough, but its not hard to get that kind of statistic when you consider the results of the election previous.

But let's look to the future.

The quality and calibre of some of the people who have stepped forward to seek (or have won) PC nominations is truly remarkable.

I'm talking about people like Jonathan Denis in Calgary-Egmont, Jennifer Diakiw in Calgary-Varsity, Kyle Fawcett in Calgary-North Hill, Alison Redford in Calgary-Elbow, Dr. Raj Sherman in Edmonton-Meadowlark, Bill Donahue in Edmonton-Centre, Justin (JC) Penny in Lethbridge West, and Monty Bauer in Athabasca-Redwater to name a few.

The fact that people like this are enthusiastically throwing their hat in the ring gives me great hope for the future of PC Alberta. Candidates like these represent various shifts in demographic, in generation, and in outlook. I think that, once Albertans see options like these on the ballot, the choice will be clear.

Dave's post was, as I said, completely expected. The "same old tory" line is one of the few that Kevin Taft seems able to use so i'm not surprised to see his party's number one blogger trotting it out.

What I do wonder, though, is if we're not seeing another strategy emerge...

At the end of his post, Dave takes a blistering swipe at the leadership of Stephane Dion and refers to the federal party as "Dion's Federal Liberals".

I have made nearly-continous reference to Kevin Taft's laughable efforts to distance himself and his party from the Liberal Party of Canada. I say laughable because I think there is far too much duplicity in the volunteer and donor bases of the two parties for it to be believeable. Still, you can understand some of Taft's rationale given the horrendous reputation that Stephane Dion and the Federal Liberals have amongst average Alberta voters.

But I smell a whiff of something more than just distancing. This may have been the opening salvo in an outward attack on Stephane Dion and the Federal Liberals. If so, Kevin Taft is taking a HUGE risk.

Even if the average Alberta voter does not care for Stephane Dion, i'm betting that your average Alberta Liberal volunteer or donor does. Trying to make voters believe he's not on the Dion team won't do him any good if he pisses off most of the people who hit the hustings to deliver his message (whatever it is) in the first place.

Some columnists have said that, in raising royalties on oil-and-gas, the Alberta PCs have alienated a large chunk of its donor base. I disagree, but even if it does have an effect on fundraising, the party is already in the most secure financial position of any political party in the country. Moreover, we seem to have regenerated and revitalized a province-wide team of grassroots volunteers.

Kevin Taft and the Liberals aren't starting from nearly as secure a position on either front. If he starts biting the hand that has fed his party for so long, it'll only get worse.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

5 articles for the price of 1

After a morning spent getting out the message of Gordon Campbell's Vision for British Columbia (hey, when in Rome, right?) i'm hoping to take a few hours this afternoon to thoroughly read the Alberta government's new royalty document.

In the meantime, the reaction on all sides of this debate continues.

There was an interesting article HERE in today's Edmonton Journal online. The story actually seems to be about 4 of 5 stories rolled into one piece, but who am I to question a CanWest editor?

Anyway, the first point talks about a member of the original royalty review panel speaking out against the government's position calling it "blatant deceit". I'd love to be able to see if this opposition comes from his or her background. However, since this panel member has chosen to remain anonymous, I can't do that. Interesting how he or she is so rooted in their convictions that they chose to speak out, but can't bring themselves to attach their name to it. This one's for the recycle bin, if you ask me.

The article goes on to explain how the energy market crash that was predicted by some industry lobbyists failed to materialize. One financial analyst suggests that the industry's protests are "much ado about nothing". Agreed.

Tristone Capital, one of the leading contributors of the "end-is-near" spin, is backtracking on the suggestion that the winter drilling season is dead. Grande Prairie's Mayor isn't worried about what effect the new royalties will have on the drilling season and suggests that the season was already going to suffer given that the US market is down. Agreed.

The article then goes on to list a number of oilsands developments that are still happy to go ahead with their projects under the new regime (you hear that Syncrude? Suncor?).

Encana, one of the first to threaten an investment shift out of Alberta, has chosen the path of cautiousness and continues to study the new rules. Canadian Oil Sands Trust, one of the large partners in the Syncrude project, suggests the same.

Mel Knight, smart guy that he is, is off to our key U.S. markets next week to explain the new rules to them and assure them that we are still the #1 place to do business in the energy sector for a variety of reasons. Given that the Minister is a former small oil-and-gas man himself, I suspect his talks will be well-received.

And finally, the article ends with Brian Mason shifting his attacks to Kevin Taft and the Liberal Party for being complacent and helping the government by not coming out with a strong position from the beginning. I disagree with Mason's position on royalties entirely, of course, but he's got a point. Brian Mason and the NDP had their position well-defined shortly after the original report was released. Kevin Taft and the don't-call-us-Liberals dithered and delayed until just before the Premier released the final decision. Mason has been contending that his party is a more effective opposition. Agreed.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Alright, everybody can exhale now

One of the most anticipated moments in Alberta's political history finally arrived yesterday afternoon. In a crowded room in Calgary, Premier Ed Stelmach and Energy Minister Mel Knight outlined the changes to Alberta's royalty regime.

First off, I was very impressed with both of these men as they delivered their remarks and subsequently took questions. Neither are flashy speakers, but they damn sure know what they're talking about. Unlike the way Liberal "Shadow Minister" Hugh MacDonald (arguably the dumbest man ever elected to the Alberta Legislature) stumbles and bumbles his way through this file, the way the Premier and Minister Knight are able to cite figures, studies, etc. off the cuff tells me that they take their jobs seriously and understand the importance of "getting it right".

I think they did.

Of course, a lot of the talking heads in the oil industry had predictions of doom and gloom. This is no surprise since their job is to defend big oil at all costs and because they've been spouting the same negative spin for months. Don't get me wrong, I grew up in the oilsands and have a tremendous respect for the resource and those who help develop it. But i'm sure i'm not the only one who's getting a little tired of Pierre Alvarez's ongoing rendition of Chicken Little.

Thankfully, news items like THIS and THIS should keep the aforementioned talking heads quiet for a little while as they rework their talking points. Continued predictions of economic collapse while the media reports that things are fine and profits are still soaring could lose them the few friends they have in the public domain.

I haven't yet read the report in detail. There is so much analysis to pour through that it will certainly keep many of us busy for the next few days.

One of the things that did jump out at me, though, was THIS. Incentives for refining and upgrading OUR oil at home just make sense. We have the technology and the expertise to make it happen. It is also an excellent tool to help spread the "Alberta Advantage" out from Fort McMurray and the Highway 2 corridor into parts of rural Alberta that haven't prospered as equally as the larger centres. Its our resource and we should be doing what we can to extract maximum value from it before we ship it down the pipe.

I'm also glad that, while there will be some major adjustments (particularily for my hometown monoliths of Syncrude and Suncor), industry has a reasonable-but-not-excessive time frame to prepare. On top of that, continuing the deep-gas royalty holiday will help salvage what was an already-threatened drilling season. Smart, fair policies all around.

I, like most of you, will have more to say in the days ahead as we continue to dissect the new royalty regime and the public's reaction to it. In the meantime, normally hard-headed columnist Neil Waugh has an excellent piece that sums it up pretty well.

Someone should send it to Graham Thomson and Don Braid... it'll blow a little sunshine up a part of their anatomy that appears to be home to a couple of large sticks at the moment.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Kevin Taft and Stephane Dion... same person? You decide.

You know, for a guy who seems so adamant about distancing himself from Stephane Dion and the Federal Liberals, you'd think Kevin Taft would avoid taking pages right out of Dion's playbook.

Yet that is exactly the scene that played itself in Calgary today.

Taft's media people put out THIS release suggesting that he would be available for comment after Premier Stelmach's news conference in Calgary this afternoon. Makes sense, right? He's the Leader of the Official Opposition and seems to be far more convinced than the average Albertan that he can become Premier, so why not get your message out right after Eddie does.

I guess he obviously wasn't expecting what the Premier announced since he blew past the media and opted to issue THIS statement instead. All that was missing was Dave Taylor being sent around to do hastily-prepared interviews a la Ignatieff.

It doesn't really matter, though. Any party that has Hugh MacDonald as their "Shadow Minister of Energy" would do just as well to keep their mouth shut and save themselves the embarassment.

Kevin Taft: He's just not up to the job.

Ed TV

Ask a Liberal or New Democrat (and, in Alberta, there's hardly much difference) about Premier Ed Stelmach's address last night and they'll say he fell flat on his face. Graham Thomson says it too... but I usually lump him in with the Opposition anyway.

What I saw, though, was far from it.

Ed Stelmach isn't the world's most inspiring orator. Everyone knows it, no one should be surprised by it. People looking for flash and style in last night's televised address should have flipped some fashion show.

That said, the Premier wasn't as flat and boring as the left would have you believe. He came across as sincere... something that the snake oil salesmen in the opposition continually fail to do.

What I was looking for, and what I hope Albertans were also looking for, was substance. That I found in spades.

The text of the Premier's speech was inspiring and encouraging.

He spoke of his vision of a more open and transparent government and outlined the steps already taken.

He spoke of protecting the land we as Albertans have inherited from our ancestors.

He spoke of the importance of a sound and practical environmental vision that strikes the balance between development and conservation.

He spoke of the need to review government policies from time to time and reminded us that it was HE who commissioned the Royalty Review Report.

The line that I enjoyed the most, though, came towards the end. Maybe its because i've been in BC too long, but I almost broke out in goosebumps when the Premier described Alberta as "a province where government gets out of your way — and where you can keep the fruits of
your hard work."

I think the Premier has laid out his vision for Alberta. Its not fancy and its not flashy, much to the chagrin of some.

It is well-thought out, it is thorough, and it is sincere.

Most importantly, it is a vision that has the best interests of Albertans in mind. That's something that those who continue to build Alberta will appreciate more than anything.